Não está claro como isso se traduzirá em assentos, dado o aumento do número de eleitores que são concursos de três vias, em vez de descer a uma briga entre o trabalho e a coalizão. O pesquisador Shaun Ratcliff disse ao Guardian Australia que as pesquisas mais recentes mostram a coalizão “voltando” em uma seleção de assentos -chave que ele está rastreando, depois que as pesquisas iniciais em fevereiro tiveram a coalizão à frente.
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Você pode encontrar falhas mais granulares das pesquisas, inclusive pela demografia, em nossa página de rastreamento.
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Somewhat further afield, Australians have already voted, Emily Wind reports:
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In the leadup to election day, Australians have cast their ballots in a number of remote locations and even from overseas – but none as far south as the 100-odd expeditioners currently working in Antarctica.
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Expeditioners working at Australia’s Antarctic and sub-Antarctic stations were able to cast their vote by telephone – a process typically reserved for voters who are blind or have low vision – with no physical ballot booth setup this year.
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Voting opened on 22 April, with expeditioners able to vote early or on election day. But, unlike others, they won’t be fined if they do not vote, according to the Australian Electoral Commission.
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The AEC says Australians travelling to work in Antarctica need to register as an Antarctic elector before leaving the country – with “Antarctic” including the Australian Antarctic Territory, the Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands, Macquarie Island, and a ship at sea in transit to or from Antarctica.
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Arrangements were put in place for expeditioners on the RSV Nuyina in case it arrived back later than scheduled (on 2 May, the day before the election).
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It is just past 8am here in Sydney, and the polling booths are officially open!
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Voters can lodge their ballots between 8am to 6pm today.
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For a refresher on when, where and how to vote, here is our 2025 voting guide with everything you need to know.
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Eventos -chave
Perguntado quanto Donald Trump e a política internacional influenciou a eleição australiana, Albanês disse: “Isso tem sido predominantemente sobre questões australianas”.
O primeiro -ministro disse que a oposição fez uma tentativa de executar “American Style Politics aqui da divisão”:
Enquanto isso, a oposição pensou que eles poderiam simplesmente correr com queixas e tentar dividir os australianos. Nós os vimos tentar iniciar guerras culturais, inclusive contra os indígenas, mirando -os. Os australianos não são obcecados por esses problemas. Vimos uma tentativa de administrar a política de estilo americano aqui de divisão e colocar australianos um contra o outro, e acho que essa não é a maneira australiana.
Albanese diz que está buscando ‘vitórias de volta’
O primeiro -ministro Anthony Albanese Estava na ABC no início desta manhã, dizendo que “vitórias nas costas” é “o que estamos buscando hoje”.
Ele fez seu argumento final para eleitores indecisos ou desiludidos:
Hoje, temos um plano de alívio de custo de vida, investindo amanhã. Temos um plano para garantir que continuemos a construir mais clínicas de atendimento urgente. 1,3 milhão de australianos se beneficiaram disso … 600.000 australianos se beneficiaram do TAFE gratuito … e para todos os contribuintes australianos, todos os 14 milhões deles … receberão um corte de impostos. Criamos um milhão de empregos desde que estávamos no cargo. O desemprego é o mais baixo de qualquer governo em 50 anos. Mas sabemos que há mais a fazer, mas se acertarmos, se estivermos otimistas sobre o futuro da Austrália, incluindo agir sobre mudanças climáticas e a oportunidade que ela representa, não apenas o desafio, então podemos ser incrivelmente bem -sucedidos como nação, e que não contrasta com os nossos oponentes que estão se esbarrando no campo, que não têm sido capazes de fazer um para a campanha, porque eles estão se esbarrando no campo, que não têm sido capazes de fazer um para a campanha, porque eles estão se esbarrando no campo, que não têm sido capazes de fazer um para a campanha, porque eles não têm se espalhado por termos o que se referem a fazer, que não se interessam por termos que se depararem com o que se referem a fazer, que não se tornam os que estão em contraste, que não se tornam que estão em contraste.
Pesquisas finais mostram trabalho no chumbo
Josh Nicholas
O trabalho está liderando a coalizão de 51,4% a 48,6% no rastreador de pesquisas da Guardian Australia, após uma enxurrada de pesquisas finais de Demosau, Newspoll, Yougov e Roy Morgan. Isso é próximo a uma repetição da última eleição, mas, como você pode ver no gráfico abaixo, mesmo no dia das eleições, ainda há incerteza.
O voto primário estimado do trabalho é constante em 30% e a coalizão 33% na média mais recente. As pesquisas têm o voto primário do trabalho um pouco mais alto que isso, mas o modelo acha que pode haver uma superestimação do trabalho, como foi visto nas eleições anteriores.
A participação primária estimada para os verdes é de cerca de 13% de acordo com nosso modelo, o que seria um aumento de um ponto na última eleição. Outros e independentes, um grupo que inclui uma nação e os independentes da cerceta, estão em 23,5%, um aumento de quatro pontos.
